Big Guns in the Big Sky

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Sky Conference will not be short on offensive firepower this coming season. From the top down, the conference is laden with talented, proven, and productive offensive threats.

Preseason favorite Montana boasts two Walter Payton Award watch lists members. Running back Chase Reynolds was a finalist in 2009, finishing 13th in the voting. A senior, Reynolds has rushed for 3,075 yards and 44 touchdowns over the last two seasons.

Joining Reynolds on the Payton watch list is senior quarterback Andrew Selle. Selle manned an offense which finished first in the Big Sky in scoring last season. He threw for 3,043 yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions, while leading the conference in passing efficiency.

Despite those gaudy numbers, first year head coach Robin Pflugrad describes himself as "cautiously optimistic" about his team's prospects this season. To Pflugrad, roster turnover is the main cause for concern. Most notably, the Grizzlies are without First Team All-American wide receiver Marc Mariani, who recently took his talents to the NFL's Tennessee Titans. Also gone are key offensive line components Levi Horn and Chris Dyke. In speaking of his team's inexperience, Pflugrad says, "We have some guys who haven't been in the war together."

Still, as the battle for the Big Sky title nears commencement, Montana appears poised to prevail. The going may get tough however, as many teams in the conference have weapons to burn.

Montana first runs into a stalwart Big Sky gun when they visit Eastern Washington on September 18th. Waiting on EWU's new red turf will be the Eagles' own Payton watch member, Taiwan Jones.

Says Pflugrad of Jones, "When he turns the corner we don't have anyone that can catch him." The numbers bear this out. In 2009, Jones averaged 7.5 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns. Originally a cornerback, Jones also proved to be a dual threat for Eastern Washington, catching 40 passes for 561 yards.

Perhaps the biggest threat facing any Big Sky defense this year is Northern Arizona senior quarterback Michael Herrick. Herrick, a Payton nominee, has also been named first-team preseason all-conference. Herrick had a sensational year in 2009, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards and 22 touchdowns. Sure to add quake to defensive coordinators' kneecaps is the word out of Flagstaff that Herrick appears to have improved his accuracy leading into the 2010 season.

Not to be outdone, senior Weber State quarterback Cameron Higgins will look to create some fireworks of his own. Higgins has been a candidate for the Walter Payton Award each of the past two seasons. He has also guided Weber State to two consecutive FCS playoff births. Higgins will meet Herrick on November 13, in Flagstaff. The meeting is sure to be a summit of gunslinging prowess.

In all, it appears there are many gunners aiming for the well-adorned bull's eye on Montana's back. With the Grizzlies facing some significant question marks, the battle for the Big Sky could come down to who has the biggest weapon to hit that target.

2010 Preseason Conference Poll (coaches and media)

1. Montana 2. Eastern Washington 3. Montana State 4. Weber State 5. Northern Arizona 6. Sacramento State 7. Northern Colorado 8. Portland State 9. Idaho State

Wwwdickbutkus NCAA Football Betting News

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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MySportsbook.com week 1 NFL lines


Now that the 2008 NFL schedule is finally out, it is only matter-of-course for lines on “Week 1” to follow.  Of course MySportsbook.com is the first to churn out odds for the NFL’s inaugural week for the upcoming season.   Expect a lot of fireworks the first Thursday night of the season as the defending champion Indianapolis Colts face off against the surprise of the 2008 season, the New Orleans Saints.  These teams were ranked #1 and #3 in the NFL respectively a season ago so a high scoring affair could be in order.  As of now, the Colts will be giving 6 points to the Saints; keep in mind the Saints were one of the better road teams last season going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS.  The first Monday night of the season will again provide a “double feature”. Coming off a disappointing season, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to get back to playoffs and improve their public image as they take on the AFC North favorite Baltimore Ravens.  The second game features a couple of teams that haven’t had too much success recently but each could make some noise if the NFC is as weak as it was last year as the San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals. The most interesting game of the opening week will feature the NFC champion Bears as they hit the road to take on the NFL’s top team during last year’s regular season, the San Diego Chargers.

MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:

Saints +6 @ Colts -6

Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)

Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)

Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5

Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1

Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3

Patriots -5 @ Jets +5

Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5

Steelers -4 @ Browns +4

Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6

Bears +6 @ Chargers -6

Lions +3 @ Raiders -3

Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5

Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4

Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3

Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3

 Super Bowl line (2008)

NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5

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