Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/19/2010 - Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Boom boom boom, now. Boom boom boom, now. Boom boom pow."
I generally don't like using song lyrics to describe a frantic episode in a NASCAR race or any other motorsports event, but after last Saturday's night's final-lap clash between on-going rivals Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski in the 250-mile Nationwide Series race at Gateway International Raceway, I couldn't help but think of the Black Eyed Peas' 2009 hit single, "Boom Boom Pow."
While they were beating each other up during the last lap around the 1.25- mile oval, you just had to wonder if the latest battle between Edwards and Keselowski would end up in a "checkers or wreckers."
Indeed, it did. Like it has in the past.
Keselowski bumped Edwards for the lead in turn one, but Edwards got payback coming out of turn four, where he nudged Keselowski from behind and sent him hard into the wall along the frontstretch, triggering a multi-car crash.
"He was holding me tight and getting me a little loose, which was cool," Keselowski said. "I was rubbing on him a little bit...I figured out a way to beat him. He wasn't happy with me, so he wrecked me. Wrecking down the straightaway is never cool, whether it's at 200 m.p.h. or 120. I'm sorry that's the way it had to end."
As Edwards took the checkered flag for a record third time in a Nationwide race at Gateway, which is located roughly 125 miles east of his hometown of Columbia, MO, Keselowski's battered car slid across the finish line in 14th- place before Shelby Howard plowed into him, causing him to spin around again. Keselowski climbed out of his car a bit woozy, but was not injured.
"Brad and I have a history, but that history had nothing to do with what happened [Saturday]," Edwards said. "I feel like we respect one another a lot. On that last lap, I would have won the race if he hadn't bumped me in turn one. He would have finished second. The way it went, he bumped me, and he finished wherever he finished, and I still won the race.
"That was the only way I could see the race turning out fair, and that was my job to win that race and to make sure I don't get walked on or get something taken away from me that's mine."
Was Edwards' win legitimate? That likely will be a subject of debate for quite some time.
Edwards claimed his incident with Keselowski was not intentional, but let's face it, with the history between these two drivers, it looked like a deliberate move on Edwards' part.
"I didn't mean any harm to him at all," Edwards said. "The deal is eventually he'll learn you can't run into my car over and over and put me in bad situations. In every situation, there is an aggressor, and there is someone who reacts. I was not the aggressor in this situation."
The drivers have had previous on-track altercations, most notably in March when Edwards intentionally bumped Keselowski from behind and sent him flying upside down into the frontstretch wall during the closing laps of the Sprint Cup Series race at Atlanta. Edwards was more than 150 laps behind at the time of the crash, due to a previous encounter with Keselowski in that race.
NASCAR immediately parked Edwards for aggressive driving, and days later, placed him on probation for three races.
The feud between the two began in April 2009 when Keselowski hit Edwards from behind on the final lap at Talladega. While Keselowski drove on to his first Sprint Cup victory, Edwards' car spun and then sailed into the safety fence along the frontstretch.
The rivalry between Edwards and Keselowski hit a new boiling point at Gateway, but how far will it go before someone gets seriously hurt, or worse, fatally injured?
Prior to the start of the season, NASCAR told its drivers, "boys, have at it," but Edwards and Keselowski have been at it too long, and it's beginning to upset some people in the sport, particularly Keselowski's father, Bob, who is a former NASCAR driver and current team owner.
"[Edwards] ain't going to kill my boy," Bob Keselowski said during a post-race interview on ESPN. " He just overreacted so bad. If he wanted to bump Brad, that's one thing, but don't drive him through the inside guard rail. Don't put him through the grandstands at Atlanta. That's asinine."
During an interview on SPEED's Wind Tunnel television show on Sunday, Sprint Cup points leader and part-time Nationwide competitor Kevin Harvick told host Dave Despain that he would have responded differently than Keselowski if he had he been the one who was involved in the incident with Edwards.
"I probably wouldn't have reacted as kindly as Brad did; I probably would have walked down there and punched him in the mouth," Harvick said.
Harvick, who won the Camping World Truck Series race at Gateway earlier in the day, finished 16th in the Nationwide event. Harvick blew a right-front tire and made contact with the wall in the late-stages.
With Keselowski currently holding a 168-point lead over Edwards in the Nationwide standings, don't be surprised if we see some more "Boom Boom Pow" between these two during the remainder of the season to come.
<< Pitt suspends DE Sheard indefinitely
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh senior starting defensive end
Jabaal Sheard has been suspended indefinitely from team activities after being
charged with multiple offenses for his part in a fight early Sunday morning.
The P
<< This Week in Golf - July 19th through July 25th
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CANADIAN OPEN, St. George's Golf & Country
Club, Toronto, Ontario - From one national championship to another, the PGA
Tour moves north of the border this week for the Canadian Open.
Despite its
<< Heat bring back F James Jones
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat made it official on Monday by re-
signing forward James Jones.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but The Miami Herald previously
reported that Jones' deal was for the veteran mini
<< Florida, NCAA looking into possible violations
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Florida has reportedly
informed the NCAA of a possible rules violation involving former football
player Maurkice Pouncey that could wind up costing the Gators their win in the
Sugar B
Jazz sign Bell >>
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz have signed guard Raja
Bell to a reported three-year contract worth $10 million.
This will be Bell's second stint with Utah after spending two seasons from
2003-05 with the club. He
Bulls officially sign Brewer >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls announced the signing of
free agent guard Ronnie Brewer on Monday.
Terms of the contract were not released, but it was earlier reported to be for
three years and $12.5 million.
The Bu
Athletics put OF Sweeney on DL >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics placed outfielder Ryan
Sweeney on the 15-day disabled list with right patella tendinitis on Monday.
The move is retroactive to July 12.
The 25-year-old is hitting a team-best .294 wi
UConn AD Hathaway to serve as Division I men's basketball chair >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NCAA announced on Monday that Jeff
Hathaway, director of athletics at the University of Connecticut, has been
appointed chair of the Division I Men's Basketball Committee for the 2011-12
academi
NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.
No. 1 always seems to fit USC.
Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.
Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.
Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.
"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."
Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.
"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."
The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.
"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."
Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.
"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"
USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.
"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."
While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.
But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.
Get the latest 2009 BCS Championship odds at MySportsbook.com.
The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.
The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.
The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.
No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.
Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.
Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.
The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.
South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.
The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.
Get free Sports Betting lines RSS feeds from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting