Ramirez quiet in return but Dodgers still double-up Padres

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manny Ramirez returned from a 50-game suspension and played only 5 1/2 innings, going 0-for-3 with a walk, two groundouts and a pop out, but the rest of his Dodger teammates picked up the slack and used a five-run first inning to defeat the Padres, 6-3, in front of a partisan crowd at Petco Park.

Ramirez came to bat as the third hitter in the first inning, and the 42,217 partisan fans erupted into a mixture of jeers and applause and stood for the entire plate appearance, which ended in a seven-pitch walk. The 12-time All- Star was suspended on May 7 after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance and was subsequently banished from Major League Baseball until Friday.

"It was great, it was the best," Ramirez said after the game. "The fans in LA drove (to San Diego) to watch me, it was unbelievable."

Ramirez was lifted in the middle of the sixth for the speedy Juan Pierre, who made sure the Dodgers didn't miss a beat in the absence of their star outfielder. Pierre started all 50 games during the suspension, batting .318 with 14 doubles, 21 runs batted in, 31 runs scored, 15 walks and 20 steals.

"I don't think theres any question he's rusty," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said of Ramirez. "He really hasn't had a lot of practice, but I thought that first at-bat was pretty amazing. It shows how good of a hitter he is and how he knows the strike zone.

"I thought it would help the defense with (Pierre) out there (in the field) because he's been playing, and that's how I made the decision (to take Ramirez out)," Torre added.

During the suspension, LA went a respectable 29-21, maintaining their healthy lead atop the NL West standings. Although the record without him was solid in a weak National League, the team moved to 21-7 this season with him in the starting lineup.

"Everyone in the clubhouse is a professional hitter, and they can do a lot of great things without me," Ramirez said. "I'm there just to follow and bring my presence and make everyone feel comfortable."

Prior to the game, Ramirez offered a public apology for his actions, although he didn't delve into the details of his drug usage. He was suspended for reportedly taking the banned substance human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG), a female fertility drug that can also be used as an antidote to reduce testosterone levels at the end of a cycle of steroid treatments.

Following the 0-for-3 outing, Ramirez's average dropped to .337 to go along with six homers and 20 RBI so far in 2009.

As far as his other teammates were concerned, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp each drove in a pair of runs, as LA won for the third time in its last four games. Rafael Furcal went 4-for-5 with a run scored out of the leadoff spot, and Hiroki Kuroda (3-4) earned his second win this season against San Diego after yielding three runs on four hits with two walks and two strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings.

Jonathan Broxton earned his 20th save of the season in the win.

Adrian Gonzalez hit a two-run double, while Scott Hairston blasted a solo homer for San Diego, which has lost seven of 10. Chad Gaudin (4-7), who hurled eight one-hit, scoreless innings in Texas his last time out, was touched for six runs on seven hits, with four walks and four strikeouts, in five frames.

The Dodgers took a huge lead in the first thanks to a couple bad throws by the Padres. Furcal singled to start and moved to second on a groundout by Orlando Hudson. Ramirez, in his first plate appearance, drew a seven-pitch walk, and Ethier followed with a grounder to first.

Gonzalez was able to make the throw for the force out at second, but the throw back to first for the double play sailed wide and off the Padres' dugout. Gaudin quickly grabbed it and fired home, except that the throw was wide of the plate, allowing Furcal to score for an early lead.

Casey Blake followed with a walk, and James Loney hit an RBI single to make it 2-0. A bloop RBI single to shallow right-center by Martin gave the Dodgers a three-run edge.

LA didn't stop the offense there, as Kemp drilled a two-run double to the gap in right-center to cap the opening frame.

Martin added an RBI groundout in the third to give the Dodgers a 6-0 lead.

Hairston put the Padres on the board in the fourth on a one-out solo homer.

San Diego cut into its deficit with two runs in the sixth, knocking Kuroda out of the game. Tony Gwynn Jr. worked a leadoff walk and moved to second on David Eckstein's single. Two batters later, Gonzalez ripped a double past Kemp in center field to score both runners and make it a 6-3 game.

Guillermo Mota came in to replace Kuroda and got out of the inning without any further damage. Mota stayed in to also pitch a scoreless seventh.

Ramon Troncoso retired two of the three hitters he faced in the eighth, and Brent Leach came in to face Gonzalez, who hit a long fly ball to deep left that Juan Pierre was able to track down to maintain the 6-3 lead.

Broxton came in and set down the Padres in order to polish off the win.

Game Notes

Gwynn has hit safely in 21 of his last 25 games and is batting .301 on the season...LA began a nine-game road trip Friday against San Diego, New York and Milwaukee...Kuroda moved to 4-1 in six career starts against the Padres...LA leads the season series, 8-3.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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